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notes on kindle
summary:
i have opinions about the device itself and the ecosystem play they’re attempting. i think they got a couple things right but it needs some real work before it will be a mass market success. but i think they may get some good sell through to the older demographic even breaking out of the early adopter group a little. could be a success from that point of view. my guess is they rushed it to market for christmas though and their development goals were behind schedule; i’d expect an improved version for it in march probably, or april/may for back-to-school cycles. same thoughts on the ecosystem business development, it was rushed… or we would be seeing more associate marketing from magazines and newspapers. or they don’t know how to court those channels well enough yet.
so onto the device:
i’m impressed by two things: e ink from mit, and integrated evdo wireless. BUT:
- $400 is only an early adopter price, needs to hit less than $200 before any mass market appeal. i know the ipod did ok at $400 but $200 seems a magic number for some reason. it’s for older, early adopters now, but i think the mass market for this is going to be students and tweens/teenagers. therefore, the next issue is damning.
- the commodore 64 style industrial design. seriously man, who designed that ugliness? clearly they don’t know how to design a fashion accessory. and tween girls are going to be a major market for a device like this long term. parents will give them a book allowance, and they’ll go crazy. it’s perfect. but only when they figure out how to design for that age group. imagine when they have multiple colors and styles and every kid has one in school, and they accessorize them…
on the ecosystem:
sony vs. amazon: interesting to see a platform play occurring. they really should open the hardware platform and have apple’s new tablets next year play in the space too, but mostly for other cheap devices from taiwan. they shouldn’t care about the hardware, just owning the channel.
this device seems the first to really have the ecosystem potential with the integrated wireless - especially with periodicals and other kinds of material. that’s what i like about it. they can also work business development deals with the major publishers for e-book versions of everything. and if they do it right, they’ll get the periodicals and newspapers (for the older demographic) to do their marketing for them - by offering the right incentives to the publishers. they should loss lead on this and the platform established for a couple years, they have the cash to do that. should sell them at cost. but the big missing piece for me is the textbook publishers. where are they? that would be a break away market to me and something to solve for next summer / school book buying season (basically by april/may 2008). if they get the price down and cut a discount with the text book publishers then the thing pays for itself in the 2008 back to school season. especially for college texts. there’s amazing potential there. pays for itself, has wikipedia searching for free, could easily sell a million of these next year and then you have a real platform.
the tweens/teenagers probably need sharing / commenting abilities to make this a super hit - if they can make that work - like sending a book to a friend after you’ve read it or sending a snippet to a friend. especially for blogs. if they could integrate IM as well and have a monthly subscription for that, it might help. but maybe the ability to leave comments in your friends’ books (e.g. in the margin, ‘note from jenny “omg, can you believe this??”‘) when they’re both reading the same book. things like that would help that age group more.
side note on the marketing:
they really had to hide the wireless costs in the periodical subscription fees and download fees. a monthly subscription would kill this instantly.
(for the older, liberal demographic) they have an environmental play, get people who feel guilty (or to feel guilty) about killing trees to switch from magazine and newspaper delivery to electronic. but then they need to solve the comics delivery and cross word puzzles, etc. in the next version. and color for many periodicals like national geographic.
(for the parents) save your kid from scoliosis, no need for a huge backpack of books now!
so again in summary, i think this is interesting but i’m not sure if amazon is going to create a runaway success unless they get some help on cost reduction and design, continue to have success on the business development deals, and get all that done before 3G goes mainstream and alternative online devices (ie. phones) get traction in the US. I’m guessing they have a two year window to try to establish the platform well. but they should license it to the phone manufacturers as well and not worry about cannibalizing their hardware. and they should just pore money into this to establish the standard in a hurry, and reap the benefits later. i predict a $200 device next summer with many more partners lined up, and some minor improvements to the feature set.
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25. November 2007 at 5:43 pm :
Also, book lovers love typography. It has the same font, or so I’m lead to believe. I think they blew it. Didn’t think about the “rush for the holiday” aspect, though. Duh. They blew it, not enough early adopters are blown away. I don’t think they’ll need to relaunch. Also, DRM.